A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. The generic ballot - a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates - has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. Projecting 2022 through the House generic ballot Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. In today’s Crystal Ball, Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz presents his model for the 2022 midterm House and Senate races, which is informed by House generic ballot polling and the number of seats each side is defending next year. You do not need to sign up for Reunions Remixed to watch today’s Crystal Ball webinar. See here for more information on Reunions Remixed. The webinar is part of the UVA Alumni Association’s Reunions Remixed, which is being held virtually June 9-12. To submit a question for today’s webinar, tweet with the hashtag #AskSabato or email us at We will try to get to as many questions as possible. He’ll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. Sabato will hold a Crystal Ball webinar from 1 p.m. June 20 by 7 p.m.Dear Readers: Later today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J.Deadline for Return of Vote by Mail Absentee Ballots:.Absentee ballots mailed beginning May 5.Visit Vote by Mail for more information.This deadline applies to both online submissions and in-person submissions.Last Day to Request a Vote by Mail Absentee Ballot: June 9 by 5 p.m.Contact the Fairfax County Office of Elections for information. Members of a uniformed service of the United States on active duty and their spouse and dependents residing with them and anyone who resides temporarily outside of the United States are entitled to extended provisions and alternative methods for voter registration.On June 20 election day, voters may only register at the precinct in which they reside and vote a provisional ballot.May 31 - June 17: Voters may register at an early voting location and vote a provisional ballot.Through May 30: Register at the Fairfax County Office of Elections.Voter Registration Deadlines, in Person.Download a voter registration application.Register online using the Virginia Department of Elections Citizen portal.online, or postmarked by mail on or before May 30 Voter Registration Deadline, online or by mail: May 30.
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